Conditions
Every figure on this page comes from Sirruna’s own endpoints, which are cached. No page calls a third party. Sources and method →
The Conditions Index
Composite of six componentsThe Index publishes when its six components report, and is withheld rather than part-computed when one is missing.
Computed by the desk from the six components, which are set out below. How the Index is built →
The figures are in the rail. This is the other half of them: a component can read high and be falling, which holds the composite up on its way down. That is the quadrant to watch.
Each mark is one of the six, placed on its level and its change.
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waiting on the week’s move
The number on its own is data. Sixty-nine falling and sixty-nine rising are the same reading and opposite states of mind, so the desk names sentiment from the level and the week’s move together and never from the vendor’s label.
Have we been here before?
The desk keeps a record of every past day whose sentiment looked like today’s and what bitcoin did over the month that followed. It is withheld. The generator is currently returning a median thirty-day return above two hundred per cent, which cannot be right, so nothing from it is published until the figure is fixed.
Sentiment is one input to the Index above and not a second score. The series is the longest the site publishes, and the ribbon under it is the same day-by-day idiom the Index tape uses, so the two can be read against each other.
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The Matrix places the market on two axes, breadth of participation against traded activity. It reads as a position, not a score. A market can be narrow on heavy volume or broad on thin volume, and the two say different things about what is driving price. The reading that matters is which quadrant the market moved from.
Breadth is the share of the top hundred assets trading higher. Activity is total capitalisation divided by twenty-four hour volume, so a lower multiple means heavier trading. Both come from the desk’s own cache, logged hourly.
waiting on the twelve-month series
A trillion-dollar number means nothing on its own. Against its own year it says whether the asset class is being added to or drained, and the shape of the line says how fast.
% of total market value
Whether capital is consolidating into bitcoin or spreading out of it. The line is withheld: the history feed and the price cache disagree on today by several points. The figure is the cache, which squares with the capitalisations beside it.
Ether priced in bitcoin
The market’s vote between the two majors. A falling ratio is capital choosing bitcoin over the platform, whatever the headlines say about either.
% of total market value
Money sitting in dollars inside the market rather than outside it. A rising share is capital waiting rather than leaving, which is a different thing entirely.
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The Tension sets what the crowd feels against what the desks did with money. It needs both sides, and is left empty rather than drawn from the half that is present.
The lean is the whole instrument. Sentiment rising while flows sell is a market convincing itself faster than the evidence warrants. Sentiment falling while flows buy is the reverse, and historically the more interesting of the two.
Flow is the desks side of The Tension above. It is also the one reading that shows what money did rather than what anybody said, which is why it sits at the back of this page rather than the front.