SIRRUNA.
Methodology

How Sirruna reads the market

Three house instruments, built from public data and refreshed through the day. Here is exactly what each one measures, where its numbers come from, and what it deliberately does not claim to do.

Sirruna is a research read for thoughtful investors, not a signal service. We do not predict prices. We translate the market's own data into three views that answer three different questions: what regime are we in, where does price sit, and what is happening beneath the surface. Every number on the site comes from public sources, listed at the bottom of this page. Nothing is invented; when a figure is not yet available, we show a dash rather than a guess.

The Conditions Index

The verdict · a 0 to 100 regime score

The Conditions Index is a single reading of the market's overall posture. It runs from 0 to 100 and sits in one of four bands. It is a measure of conditions, not a forecast: a high reading says the backdrop is supportive, not that prices will rise tomorrow.

CautionGuardedNeutralExpansion
The marker sits at the composite score; the band names the regime.

The six forces beneath it

The composite is built from six forces, each measuring a different part of the picture. We weight and combine them into the single score; the weighting is ours, but the inputs are all public.

Conviction
Whether buyers are committed or hesitant, read from price behaviour and participation. CoinGecko
Liquidity
The tide of money in the system: the Fed balance sheet net of the Treasury account and reverse repo, and its recent trend. FRED
Flows
Where institutional money is moving, led by spot ETF creations and redemptions. CoinGlass
Leverage
How stretched the derivatives market is, from perpetual funding rates and open interest. Binance
Volatility
How violent the tape is, and whether ranges are widening or settling. CoinGecko
Momentum
The direction and strength of the trend across recent sessions. CoinGecko
What it is not

Not a buy or sell signal, and not a price target. A reading of 61 means conditions are constructive, not that the next move is up.

The Riverbank

Where price sits · structure over time

The Riverbank shows Bitcoin's recent path as a river running between two banks: a support level below and a resistance level above. The banks are the structural levels that have mattered over the week; the river is where price has actually flowed inside them. At a glance you see whether price is hugging a bank, pressing one, or has broken through.

The banks are weekly levels; the red river is the last seven days of price.

The bands are set once a week, from the levels that have governed trading. The river and the live marker update continuously, so the position you read is current even when the banks themselves are a few days old. The status line states it plainly: below the lower bank, hugging the lower bank, mid-river, pressing the upper bank, or above the upper bank.

What it is not

Not a prediction that price will bounce at support or stall at resistance. It is a map of where price stands relative to levels that have mattered, nothing more.

The Market Matrix

Beneath the surface · breadth against volume

Two markets can sit at the same price for very different reasons. The Matrix plots the market's internals on two axes: breadth (how many coins are participating, from narrow to broad) across the bottom, and volume (how heavy the activity is relative to size, from quiet to frenzied) up the side. Where those two meet names the regime.

NarrowBreadthBroad
Nine regimes. The lit cell is where the market sits now; vertical is volume, horizontal is breadth.

A red trail records the last 24 hours, fading from faint at the start to solid at the current dot, so you can see the direction of travel at a glance. A second, teal dot marks the 7-day average, showing how far today has drifted from the week. Breadth is the share of the top 100 coins trading higher; volume intensity is total market activity measured against total market size.

What it is not

Not a timing tool. A move into Concentration or Broad Rally describes the character of the current tape, not the next candle.

Where the numbers come from

Every figure on Sirruna traces to a public source. We do not hold proprietary price data; our work is in how the pieces are combined and read.

CoinGecko
Prices, market capitalisation, trading volume, dominance, and breadth across the top 100 assets.
FRED
Federal Reserve data: the balance sheet, the Treasury General Account, reverse repo, rates, the dollar, and equity indices, used for liquidity and macro correlation.
Binance
Perpetual funding rates and open interest, used to read leverage.
CoinGlass
Spot ETF creations and redemptions, used for institutional flows.
Alternative.me
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, used as a sentiment cross-check.

Prices on the tape refresh every few minutes from a shared cache, so a single source call serves every reader rather than each browser hitting the data provider. The Index and the Conditions page update through the day. The regional briefs publish morning and evening; the Long View publishes weekly.

How we work

Sirruna is an AI-assisted research desk. The instruments are computed from the data above; the written briefs and this site's editorial are drafted with AI and shaped to a consistent house voice. We hold ourselves to two rules that matter for trust: no invented numbers, every figure must trace to a real source, and no fabricated quotes, we never put words in the mouths of real people. Where a reading is stale or still loading, we show it as such rather than dress it up.

Sirruna is a research and education product. Nothing here is financial advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and none of it is personalised to your circumstances. Markets carry risk, including the loss of capital. Do your own work, and consider speaking with a licensed adviser before acting.